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3/5/09

Next year's Edmonton Oilers

I'm sure everyone can agree that a lot changed for this team yesterday. 2 new top 6 forwards is always a curious change and there can be no doubt that the rest of the season will be interesting to watch.

I'm still pretty sure we make the playoffs...I'm less sure we get anywhere...and though I'm quite happy with our return for Cole; he would have been excellent in those playoffs.

What's more interesting for me is next year.

I'm thinking there will be substantial movement (again) and that we'll have to wait for chemistry to form on this team yet again, but that maybe we're in a better position for next year now.

i think it's nearly a lock that the following players will be gone regardless of what else happens:

Penner
Nilsson

After that it's tough to say; though I think our obvious targets are a guy like Frolov and a guy like Harding. If Jay Bouwmeester wants to come home; it's really hard to say no. That would likely spell the end of either Gilbert or Grebeshkov, which would make me sad, but I could see it happening.

Frolov(4)-Horcoff(6.5)-Hemsky(4)
Cogliano(1)-O'Sullivan(2.9)-Kotalik(2)
Moreau(2)-Gagner(1.6)-Pisani (2.5)
Pouliot/Reddox/Brule-Brodziak-Stortini/MacIntyre (2 combined)

28.5

Visnovsky(5.6)-Bouwmeester (6)
Souray(5.4)-Gilbert(4)
Smid(2)-Peckham(.5)
Strudwick (.5)

24mil

I could see. But nothing left for a goalie really...so we'd have to find a way to likely move a guy like Moreau as well. With a PP of:

Frolov-O'Sullivan-Hemsky
Visnovsky-Souray

Cogliano-Horcoff-Gagner
Kotalik-Bouwmeester

Fun thoughts anyway. Curse you salary cap!!!

7 comments:

Scott said...

Horcoff's salary for next year is aggregious. They paid him for his production for half a year before he got hurt, not to mention the fact that the coach loves the guy. It's nearly impossible to move him though, and even then who would we use to fill the faceoff hole his departure would make.

raventalon40 said...

If things go south there's always waivers + buy out. Or we could try the Tampa Bay Lightning, knowing them, they're crazy enough to try anything.

reijo29 said...

Dude, I think that you need to go back to the drawing board both with the lines and the cap hits.

*Frolov is 2.9 million next year. *Horcoff is 5.5 for next 6 years.
*Kotalik - I think 2 million per for 2-3 years is reasonable for Kotalik but I want to see what happens before we start committing.
*4th Line & 2 extra F's will cost approx. 3 million.
*Bouwmeester turned down a 7 million a year in Florida so I'm pretty sure you need to expect a 7 million cap hit minimum.
*Smid at 2 million a year on a 3-4 year deal is likely accurate as well.
*Struds makes NHL Minimum for a guy with his level of exp. (650k)
*Peckham is on books for 600k.

Do you think we can get Frolov for a combination of Penner (limited trade value), Nilsson (limited value) & Grebs or Gilbert (high value)?
Then trade Staios plus a prospect for a late pick?

Finally, in regards to lines:

Gagner IS the 2nd line Scoring Center, no ifs ands or buts about it whether we like it or not.

O'Sullivan will play wing here unless Horc, Gags or Cogs is dealt.

If Cogs does get moved to 2nd line wing it will be RW. That's where he attacks from if you watch him on a regular basis.

I would say your lines should be:

Frolov-10-83
19-89-13 (Too small - won't happen)
18-78-34 (Will Poo get a chance?)
22-51-46
85-33 (67?)

Kotalik is not listed as I don't see a fit if Frolov is brought in.
Might be better off (and more likely) trading for a Colby Armstrong type for the 2RW spot and keeping Kotalik or moving O'Sullivan to 1LW.

With the more accurate cap numbers figured in (and no Kotalik) the cap number actually drops by 1.850k.

LMHF#1 said...

Reijo:

I did miss the numbers a bit, admittedly it was a quick-ish post on my part.

I agree on waiting for Kotalik to show something, just speculating that maybe he will.

I don't think Bouwmeester wants to be in FLA for 100 mil per year quite frankly. What a crummy place if you actually love to play.

I wonder what it would take to get Frolov; I must admit I'm less optimistic this week after reacquainting myself with the Kings somewhat and noticing they seem to be progressing faster than expected.

I don't know if Gagner's 2C if MacTavish isn't. I sure hope he is by mid-year or even early, but I don't know how he's gonna play next year. Thought I knew this year but didn't happen.

One more thing, no Jacques. Not now, not ever.

LMHF#1 said...

Scott:

I wonder if a new coach with a different approach combined with a refocus on his shooting this summer could really help Horcoff out. I don't think he'll ever get back to where he was offensively because I think he peaked and everything was going right for him, but he could at least give some value offensively without having to play him for almost half the game like our current coach does.

Scott said...

There is no chance - none - Bouwmeester comes here. He doesn't want to play in a hockey bed, especially his hometown. He turned down 7.5 mil/season from Florida... what does he think he's going to get out there...?

My question is - how do you get rid of Penner in the off-season? Who takes that contract?

LMHF#1 said...

There's always a team out there desperate for a big man. Once the FA derby is done (though ideally before or at the draft) I think you could dump him for essentially nothing (but you get his cap space so I think that's now value in this reality).

I don't know about Jay; the story's always changing when it comes to whether or not he wants to play here.

i think he hates playing in FLA because he knows they'll never win anything and wouldn't take a small tropical island to play there.